Abandoned Footnotes. About six months ago, Tom Pepinsky wrote a post, on the occasion of Lee Kuan Yew’s death, where he argued graphically that Lee Kuan Yew’s claim to have taken Singapore “from Third World to First” was a bit overstated. Using Kristian Gleditsch’s expanded GDP data, he noted that, in percentile terms, Singapore was already quite wealthy by the time it became independent, especially when compared to its neighbours: By this measure, Singapore was as wealthy as the UK (per capita) by the mid- 1. On this view, the most we could say is that Singapore escaped the “middle income trap,” not so much the “third world.”The post got a fair bit of attention, though also, as I recall, a bit of pushback on Twitter and in the comments about both the data source used (Gleditsch rather than the Penn World Table or the Maddison dataset) and the decision to look at the percentile rank of income rather than the actual per capita income. Indeed, the figure above looks different if we use the Penn World Table’s latest measure of “expenditure side real GDP, at chained PPPs” (recommended by the Penn World Table investigators for “comparison of living standards across countries and over time”): (There’s no data for Myanmar in the PWT 8. Now Singapore’s starting income rank is much closer to Malaysia’s (they were, after all, part of the same country until 1. UK’s income rank until the 1. The difference between the two graphs is even starker if, instead of percentile ranks, we simply look at the actual income per capita numbers in PWT8. Gleditsch data: Using the recommended PWT 8. Singapore at independence in 1. Malaysia’s, and only one- sixth of US income; using the Gleditsch data, by contrast, Singapore starts out at nearly double the income level of Malaysia (more than $6. US income (and about half of UK income). It’s a big head- start, and it does make Lee’s achievement look a bit less impressive (an average growth rate for the period 1. Eugene Sawyer (September 3, 1934 – January 19, 2008) was an American businessman, educator, and politician who served as the 53rd Mayor of Chicago from December 2. Spreepark was an entertainment park in the north of the Pl Lee was Prime Minister, of 4. PWT8. 1 measure). At the time, I thought that the difference between the two estimates of Singaporean GDP was simply a matter of different data sources. But when you dig deeper, it turns out that the source of Gleditsch’s numbers for Singapore was ? In this particular case, the discrepancy is due, first, to adjustments in the 2. PPPs used between versions 8. PWT that increased the base price level in many countries and years, and hence lowered their measured GDP, and second, to the fact that the Gleditsch data reports, not the “expenditure side” measure of GDP (basically real GDP adjusted for changes in the terms of trade), but the measure for “output side real GDP at chained PPPs” (which is not adjusted for terms of trade). The latter measure, according to the PWT’s handy guide, is the one that should be used “to compare relative productive capacity across countries and over time,” rather than living standards (which may be affected by favourable terms of trade - e. The combined effect of these two differences makes Singapore’s economic performance look less impressive on the Gleditsch measure (PWT 8. PWT8. 1’s “expenditure side” measure (or even the PWT8. With Gerald McRaney, Shanna Reed, Nicole Dubuc, Chelsea Hertford. Major John MacGillis is a conservative, by-the-book, die-hard Marine. Polly Cooper is a pacifistic. Photos of abandoned railways, disused stations, old tracks, railway architecture and routes in England and Wales. Here are some photos I purchased on ebay (that doesn't seem to be for sale anymore) The set was abandoned after 1989 to sit there until it was moved to. Garfield awakens to find his home abandoned and has to confront the knowledge that the rest of the strip might be a hallucination as he is dying of starvation. Indeed, the estimated growth rates for the period of Lee’s premiership of independent Singapore (1. Penn World Table 8. Penn World Table 8. World Development Indicators, Gleditsch, Maddison) do vary a fair amount: (I include a measure from PWT8. PPPs,” which is also used to compare growth in living standards, according to this PWT document. Error bars can be understood as a measure of volatility in the GDP measure - larger bars indicate more ups and downs in the series). To be sure, by whatever measure, Singapore under Lee Kuan Yew grew very fast compared to the rest of the world (certainly in the top 1. GDP of China in 1. But purely by accident, the Gleditsch data shows Lee in the worst possible light: Measure Growth rate Percentile Rank PWT 8. Output side, chained PPPs 7. PWT 8. 1: Output side, current PPPs, 2. PWT 8. 1: Expenditure side, current PPPs, 2. PWT 8. 1: Expenditure side, chained PPPs 6. WDI: GDP per capita, constant 2. Maddison 2. 01. 3: Real GDP per capita, 1. PWT 8. 0: Expenditure side, current PPPs, 2. PWT 8. 0: Expenditure side, chained PPPs 6. PWT 8. 0: Output side, current PPPs, 2. PWT 8. 1: National- accounts growth rates, 2. PWT 8. 0: National- accounts growth rates, 2. PWT 8. 1: Real consumption of households and. PPPs, 2. 00. 5$ 5. PWT 8. 0: Output side, chained PPPs 4. Gleditsch 4. 8. 3% 9. There are perfectly good reasons for this variation in growth estimates. Current PPP measures of GDP per capita should not, in general, be identical to chained PPP measures, since the PPP conversion factors will vary over time in the latter and not in the former; I assume that this divergence may be magnified when an economy is undergoing genuine structural transformation. Expenditure- side and output- side measures will also vary depending on whether a country is facing better or worse terms of trade, something that will apply especially to trade- dependent economies like Singapore’s. More generally, the Maddison project, the World Bank, and the Penn World Table project make different adjustments to the numbers produced by national statistical offices, based on different views about how to compare various prices across countries and time and different assumptions about the structure of particular economies. And though in the Singaporean case this is not really a problem, ultimately most estimates of the productive capacity of an economy, or the living standards of a country, depend on the reliability of national statistical agencies, which are subject to different constraints, including lack of resources to gather data and political manipulation. Morten Jerven, for example, argues that in some African countries, the numbers measuring GDP are basically guesstimates of limited value, given the lack of reliable price surveys, the low capacity of some national statistical offices, and the impossibility of measuring certain economic sectors; and Jerome Wallace has written on the political incentives for manipulating GDP statistics in China, especially at the subnational level, which bias Chinese growth rates upwards. Though the main PWT data reports estimates of the Chinese economy based on official national accounts data, the PWT researchers also provide an additional table reporting “adjusted” national accounts data based on the research of Harry Wu. The Maddison project reports the Wu- adjusted data instead, which results in generally lower rates of growth before 1. How much does it matter, however, which measure we use to evaluate the economic performance of particular regimes and political leaders? Which leaders and regimes have the most “disputed” economic performance, depending on the measure used? Using the Beta version of the Archigos dataset, I estimated the growth rates of all available measures of GDP per capita for all political leaders who were in office by at least 8 years up until 2. Eight years may not seem long, but in fact only about 1. Moreover, eight years is two American presidential terms (so the data includes some American leaders), and seems long enough for leaders to actually make a difference, or at least successfully ride out a crisis or two. The economic stars of this select group of about 3. The variation at the top is enormous, depending on what measure we use. For example, Obasanjo is ranked as the top performing leader from 1. PWT8. 1 measures, but only in the 8. Maddison, and the estimated growth rates for the period range all the way from 6. Maddison) to 2. 8% per year (PWT 8. If we believe the PWT, Obasanjo presided over a seven- fold increase in Nigeria’s living standards; if we believe Maddison (or the WDI), Nigerian living standards merely increased by about 1. The economic performance of other leaders varies even more dramatically: if we believe version 8. PWT, the real consumtion of households and government in Equatorial Guinea under Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo increased about 6 times from 1. GDP per capita measures on the expenditure side in both versions of the PWT, living standards increased about 4. PWT version 8. 0, the productive capacity of the economy of Equatorial Guinea increased about 1. In this context, it is reassuring that almost all measures agree that Singapore’s productive capacity and measured living standards increased by around five times during Lee’s time in office. The same variability is also evident among the very worst performers: Depending on which measure you use, Nigeria’s economic output and living standards under the military government of Babangida either contracted at a rate of around 1. PWT8. 1, expenditure- side measures), or merely remained stagnant (Maddison, World Development indicators). Jabir as- Sabah of Kuwait presided over one of the most severe depressions in modern history (- 1. PWT 8. 0) or merely over an extended recession caused by falling oil prices (- 1. PWT 8. 1). In the case of Syria under Hafiz al- Assad, the different datasets do not even agree as to whether the economy was growing a bit or shrinking horribly during his time in power. The problem is not that some datasets always produce higher or lower estimates, but that for some particular kinds of leaders and countries, they seem to disagree for opaque reasons. The biggest divergences in estimates seem to occur for leaders that presided over states whose statistical capacity is at best dubious, or who were undergoing some severe trade shock (wild swings in the price of oil, or severe conflict or civil war), but it’s hard to tell without more detailed analysis. Here, for example, are the leaders whose growth estimates differ the most (9. Leader Lowest Highest Difference Source low Source high Measures Obasanjo, Nigeria, 1. Maddison 2. 01. 3: Real GDP per capita, 1. PWT 8. 1: Real consumption of households and. PPPs, 2. 00. 5$ 1. Babangida, Nigeria, 1. PWT 8. 1: Real consumption of households and. PPPs, 2. 00. 5$ Maddison 2. Eugene Sawyer - Wikipedia. Eugene Sawyer. 53rd Mayor of Chicago. In office. December 2, 1. Daley. City of Chicago Alderman. In office. 19. 71 . He was the second African- American to serve as mayor of Chicago. Sawyer was a member of the Democratic Party. Early life and early career. After graduating, he had a brief stint as a chemistry and mathematics teacher in Prentiss, Mississippi, before moving to Chicago to do laboratory work in 1. In 1. 95. 9, Sawyer took a job in Chicago. During Washington's tenure, a coalition of Regular Democratic and independent Democratic aldermen enacted reforms. Washington's supporters in the city council divided, supporting Aldermen Sawyer and Timothy C. Sawyer's inauguration for mayor occurred in the parking lot of a closed restaurant at North and Bosworth Avenues at 4: 0. December 2, 1. 98. During his time as mayor, Sawyer worked to pass legislation supporting the installation of lights at Wrigley Field and the Clean Indoor Air Ordinance banning indoor smoking. Building on groundwork laid under Mayor Washington, Sawyer championed the Human Rights Ordinance, passed in 1. This was the first Chicago city ordinance to assert the rights of gay and lesbian Chicagoans. Daley defeated incumbent Eugene Sawyer as well as Alderman Lawrence Bloom, Sheila Jones and James C. After retiring, he became involved in business again. Sawyer was a member of Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity and an active member of the Vernon Park Church of God. Sawyer died on Saturday, January 1. PM after a series of strokes and other health setbacks over the previous month. Eugene Sawyer Mayoral Records Finding Aid. Retrieved January 1, 2. Chicago Democracy Project. Chicago Public Library.
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